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The Total Return CAPE adjusts the traditional Shiller CAPE to account for dividends reinvested over the 10-year earnings period. This provides a more accurate assessment of total shareholder value and helps distinguish between price appreciation and total returns.
Current
42.24
Average
21.07
Median
20.60
Range
7 - 48
Data from Jan 1881 to Oct 2025 (1738 data points)
Total Return CAPE modifies the traditional CAPE calculation by incorporating dividend reinvestment into the price component. This accounts for the compounding effect of dividends over the 10-year measurement period.
The spread between TR CAPE and regular CAPE reflects the impact of dividends. A wider spread indicates higher cumulative dividend contributions over the measurement period.
Regular CAPE
Price-only valuation metric, excludes dividend income
Total Return CAPE
Includes dividend reinvestment, reflects true investor returns
The Difference
Represents the compounded value of dividends over 10 years
In periods of higher dividend yields (e.g., 1970s-1980s), the gap between CAPE and TR CAPE widens significantly, showing dividends' crucial role in total returns.
TR CAPE provides context for current valuations by showing whether investors are being compensated through dividends or relying purely on price appreciation.
For retirement planning and long-term investing, TR CAPE better reflects the actual wealth accumulation potential of equity investments.
Data courtesy of Robert Shiller, Yale University. Total Return CAPE calculations include dividend reinvestment assumptions based on historical dividend yields.
This information is for educational and analysis purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.